Consensus revenue forecast edges up by about $60 million; officials flag childcare payroll tax shortfall and new-tax uncertainty

A joint meeting of the Vermont House and Senate Appropriations committees on Jan. 22 heard a presentation from legislative economist Tom Cabot, who said the twice-yearly consensus revenue forecast approved by the emergency board shows a modest upgrade of roughly $60 million across the state’s three major funds compared with the July numbers.

"It's not an earth‑shaking forecast, but it's a little to the good," Cabot said, summarizing the January estimates and an across‑the‑board upgrade of about 1.8 percent relative to July. He said stronger-than-expected economic activity through the first half of the fiscal year—including continued job gains and easing inflation measured by the PCE index—helped drive the revision.

The nut of the discussion focused on which receipts are driving the revision and where uncertainty remains. Cabot told the committees that several recently enacted taxes are yielding less than originally projected in July. He cited the new "cloud" sales tax and a short‑term rental surcharge as examples of bases that often take time to…