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Ways & Means hearing: forecaster says U.S. GDP above 3% but state lacks granular wealth data
Summary
At a Ways & Means Committee Q&A, Tom Kivett told lawmakers national GDP and market gains are boosting revenue forecasts even as gains are uneven; staff and members flagged a lack of credible state-level wealth data and asked for more localized analysis ahead of the July forecast.
Tom Kivett, staff member, told the Ways & Means Committee that broad national measures show a stronger economy even though many Vermonters may not feel it.
"The US economy is tracking above real GDP growth, tracking above 3%," Kivett said, adding that the stock market’s gains feed into personal and corporate revenue. He also warned that aggregate figures mask large differences across households: "Whenever you look at an aggregate statistic, it's comprised of 1,000,000 and 1,000,000 of you know, conditions."
Kivett told lawmakers the committee’s revenue models rely on measures such as personal income, retail sales and asset-price effects. He cited the Federal Reserve’s data showing the bottom 50% of households owned about 1% of corporate equities and mutual funds as of Q3 2024, and said that consumer debt is concentrated among lower-wealth households.
The lack of state-level wealth statistics was a recurring concern. "There are not, credible wealth statistics at the state level," Kivett said, noting federal surveys have a much larger sample of very high‑wealth households than state data sources. Rep. Wozlak and other members asked for more localized figures to understand whether national inequality trends mirror conditions in Vermont.
Kivett recommended follow-up work and flagged the next forecast cycle as an opportunity to provide more state‑specific breakdowns. Committee staff also pointed members to a staff report drafted by Joyce Manchester as a reference for further study.
Why this matters: Kivett said market and asset-price gains boost tax bases that feed the general fund—especially income, corporate and estate taxes—so uneven wealth gains matter for both revenue projections and policy choices. He told members staff will keep drilling into distributional questions ahead of the next forecast.
