Kyrene explains academic-progress metric and district assessments used to forecast state results

District research and accountability staff explained the district’s academic-progress metric and the suite of assessments the district uses as leading indicators at a Dec. board data retreat.

Rebecca Bolnick, director of research, described the academic-progress composite that the district uses in teacher evaluation: a weighted combination of percent passing on state assessments, measured growth, and an on-track projection. “On-track is a projection: if a student continued on the same trajectory from the prior year to the current year, would they be on pace to pass the state assessment in three years?” she said.

Why it matters: the board was told that relying solely on percent-passing masks important work, particularly in schools serving higher shares of English learners, students with disabilities or economically disadvantaged students. The composite gives more credit to teachers whose students are making consistent growth or are on a trajectory to reach proficiency.

How the measure works (as presented): - Passing: the percent of students meeting the state proficiency cut score in English language arts (ELA) and math. - Growth: change in distance from the passing cut score from one year to the next. If the distance decreases, the student is counted as growing. - On-track: a projection that extrapolates two years of data to judge whether current trajectory leads to proficiency in three years. - Weighting: district staff described a weighting that places 50% of the composite on the on-track measure and allocates the remaining 50% between passing and growth, resulting in a single district academic-progress percentage.

Leading indicators: staff also reviewed district assessments used to estimate likely state outcomes. DIBELS (K–3), NWEA (several grade bands), and i-Ready (math K–5) are nationally normed and adaptive instruments the district uses as early signals of where students are likely to score on the state exam. Staff said the vendors’ linking studies and the district’s own analysis indicate these assessments predict state passing roughly eight or nine times out of ten when used at scale.

Use in practice: the on-track and growth calculations require at least two consecutive years of data and therefore begin to apply in the district’s calculations in later elementary grades; staff noted that on-track is recalculated annually so projections update when new data become available. District staff said they provide teachers with an award-winning explainer video and classroom-level dashboards so educators can use the metric diagnostically.

Trustee questions: board members asked how often projections change and whether the projection can mislead decisions about interventions. Staff answered that the projection is an estimate based on historical trajectory and that it is one of multiple data points teachers use; they emphasized teacher-level and classroom-level progress monitoring is used for day-to-day decisions.

Ending: district staff said the goal for the academic-progress composite is to reach 70% by 2027–28 and that the board will see state-assessment peer-comparisons when those results are released.