November forecast: Minnesota’s K‑12 budget projected to grow; free school meals and special education drive increases

Jenna Hoefer, the nonpartisan fiscal analyst for the Senate Education Finance Committee, briefed members on the November 2024 forecast on Jan. 21 and outlined how the projection affects education finance for the 2026–27 biennium.

Hoefer told the committee that the education‑related all‑funds budget is $27.8 billion for 2026–27, with about $25.5 billion coming from the state general fund. "For the 2026 2027 biennium, the education based budget is $27,800,000,000 with about 92% of that coming from the general fund," she said.

Why it matters: the forecast is the baseline many legislators use when writing the omnibus education finance bill. Hoefer said general education aid and special education aid account for the largest shares of the general fund education budget: approximately $17.2 billion (about 67.4%) for general education aid and $5.8 billion (about 22.6%) for special education in 2026–27.

Key budget points Hoefer gave the committee: - All funds (2026–27): $27.8 billion; general fund: $25.5 billion. - Composition (2026–27): general education aid ~$17.2 billion (67.4% of education general fund), special education aid ~$5.8 billion (22.6%). - Nutrition: the free school meals program and related nutrition spending rise to about $659 million for 2026–27; Hoefer directed members to the committee aid‑appropriation tracker for line‑by‑line details and said lines 142–143 on the spreadsheet show the program total. - Formula indexing: the basic formula allowance is indexed to the greater of 2% or CPI (not to exceed 3%). - Levies and local property tax: certified school district levies are projected at about $8.3 billion before credits, with credits and adjustments (including the school building bond credit) reducing property taxpayer liability by roughly $275 million.

Hoefer noted modest changes between the end‑of‑session budget and the November forecast: a small reduction in appropriations for fiscal 2024–25 (about $8 million, or 0.03%) and a larger reduction for 2026–27 (about $95.8 million, or 0.37%), primarily driven by lower pupil counts for some programs but offset by increases in special education, transportation and nutrition participation.

Committee exchange and follow ups Senator Andrew Lang and others asked for clarification on transferred appropriations for early childhood programs. Hoefer explained that some early childhood appropriations are now made to the Department of Children, Youth, and Families (DCYF) and that many of those funds will be transferred back to the Department of Education for payments: "after the appropriation is made to the Department of Children, Youth and Families, they will transfer that funding back to the Department of Education." She said the department will continue to make payments so districts should not experience disruption.

Senator Scott Croon (Croghan in the transcript) asked for a specific dollar amount tied to the free meals program. Hoefer pointed members to the aid‑tracking spreadsheet and said the free school meals program lines total about $658,000,000 for the 2026–27 biennium.

Senator Farnsworth asked about the $137 million line for state agencies; Hoefer provided a breakdown on the record: Department of Education operations about $78.8 million, Minnesota State Academies about $34.8 million, Perpich Center for Arts Education about $16.9 million, and the Professional Educator Licensing and Standards Board about $7.2 million. Hoefer offered to provide FTE counts and additional agency detail to the committee.

Hoefer also said committee members will receive budget tracking spreadsheets (aid appropriations and levy tracking) and links to Minnesota Management and Budget forecast documents and a Senate Counsel fiscal issue brief. She invited members to follow up with staff for district‑level or line‑by‑line detail.