State demographer: Minnesota had just under 1 million school‑age children in 2023; modest decline projected

Susan Brower, Minnesota’s state demographer, told the Senate Education Finance Committee on Jan. 21 that there were "just under 1,000,000 school age children in Minnesota in 2023," and that demographic shifts will change where student growth occurs in coming years.

Brower said the older adult population became more numerous than the school‑age population in 2023 and that, for the state as a whole, the demographer’s November forecast projects roughly a 5% reduction in school‑age residents over the next 15–20 years, driven primarily by lower birth rates.

The forecast matters because it informs education funding and district planning across Minnesota. Brower told the panel the decline is not uniform: "If we look region by region, we do see quite a bit of difference ... the northern part of the state seeing the largest declines and the most consistent declines," while the Twin Cities metro will continue to concentrate students.

Key findings Brower gave the committee: - Residents ages 5–17 in 2023:…