Revenue forecasters urge clarity on sales-tax carve-outs; committee agrees to gross-to-net spreadsheet approach

The Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee heard three competing revenue forecasts and agreed to use a single gross-to-net spreadsheet method to produce the committee's general-fund revenue recommendation.

Committee co-chair Representative Scott Kocht (Co Chair Cook was referenced in the transcript) opened the session by reminding members the committee's statutory mission derives from the Idaho Constitution and the need to "review the Governor's fiscal years 2025 and 2026 general fund revenue projections and provide advice to the legislature regarding the total estimated revenues expected to be available for appropriation." The committee then heard presentations from the university forecasting group, the Associated Taxpayers of Idaho and the Idaho State Tax Commission before debating how to treat recent statutory sales-tax carve-outs in the forecasts.

The forecasting presentations set the context for the debate. Steve Peterson, associate clinical professor at the University of Idaho and representative of the university forecasting committee, said Idaho's near-term outlook shows a small decline in fiscal 2025 followed by strong growth in 2026 and 2027. "We're expecting our projected fiscal year 2025 is about pretty much the same as it was last year, about a -1.5 percent decline," Peterson said, and then forecast "a robust increase of 9.7% in fiscal year 2026 and…