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Legislative revenue panel urges caution, recommends lower general‑fund forecasts
Summary
The Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee presented median revenue projections below Governor Little’s numbers and the Joint Finance Committee accepted the report by unanimous consent.
The Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee told the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee (JFAC) that its median general‑fund revenue projections are below Governor Brad Little’s recommendations and asked lawmakers to be cautious when making appropriations.
Senator Kevin Cook, cochair of the EROC committee and senator for District 32, summarized the committee’s assessment and its recommended numbers for the Legislature. “We recommend to the Senate and House leadership and to the co‑chairs of the Joint Finance Appropriations Committee total general fund revenues available for appropriation to be $5,990,000,000 for fiscal year 2025, and $6,400,000,000 for fiscal year 2026,” he said.
The committee compared its median forecasts with the governor’s figures: for fiscal 2025 the governor’s projection was $5,947,800,000 and the committee’s median was $5,790,000,000 (about 2.7% below the governor’s number); for fiscal 2026 the governor projected $6,407,600,000 and the committee’s median was $6,032,000,000 (about 5.9% below); and for fiscal 2027 the committee’s median projection was also below the governor’s projection by about 6.6%.
The panel cited uncertainty tied to Federal Reserve actions on inflation and the upcoming presidential election as reasons to be cautious about approving appropriations above the committee’s recommended revenue levels.
Representative Jeff Ehlers, cochair of EROC, thanked committee members and outside expert witnesses who provided testimony that informed the forecast.
Cochair Horman moved to accept the EROC report and the motion was seconded by Senator Woodward. JFAC accepted the report by unanimous consent.
The committee’s recommendation will be used by JFAC leadership when setting revenue assumptions for appropriation decisions in the coming days. The EROC report and the committee’s recommended figures were entered into the record for use in the JFAC budget process.
