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Revenue advisory panel recommends lower general‑fund forecasts than governor; JFAC accepts report
Summary
The Joint Finance Appropriations Committee accepted the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee's revised revenue recommendations, which come in below Governor Little's general fund projections for fiscal years 2025'and 2026. The committee urged caution on appropriations above its recommended levels.
The Joint Finance Appropriations Committee accepted the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee's (EROC) revenue report, which recommended lower general‑fund revenue figures than those proposed by Governor Brad Little for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
EROC Cochair Senator Kevin Cook told the committee the panel had completed “our overall assessment of Governor Little's general fund revenue projections” and reviewed testimony from economists, business leaders and industry spokesmen before arriving at its recommendations. The committee recommended total general fund revenues available for appropriation of $5,990,000,000 for fiscal 2025 and $6,400,000,000 for fiscal 2026, numbers the panel said were below the governor's projections.
Why it matters: The committee noted constitutional and practical limits on spending and cautioned that economic uncertainty'including Federal Reserve actions on inflation and the recent presidential election'could affect revenue outcomes. Idaho's Constitution, Article VII, Section 11, requires the state to balance appropriations and expenditures within available revenues; the revenue projection sets the top line for appropriation decisions in the upcoming budget process.
EROC compared its median projections to the governor's numbers: for fiscal 2025 the governor's projection was listed as $5,947,800,000 while the committee's median projection was $5,790,000,000 (2.7% below the governor). For 2026 the governor's projection was $6,407,600,000 and the committee's median was $6,032,000,000 (5.9% below). After reconsideration of testimony the committee advanced the modestly higher recommendation noted above ($5.99B for 2025 and $6.4B for 2026) as its guidance to JFAC leadership.
EROC Cochair Representative Jeff Ehlers thanked members for their work and the committee moved to accept the report. Cochair Harmon moved that the committee accept the EROC report; Senator Woodward seconded. By unanimous consent, with no objections raised, JFAC accepted the committee report.
The committee also warned against making appropriations above the committee's revenue recommendation, saying the panel "recommend[s] cautious in making appropriations above the committee's revenue recommendation," language offered during the presentation.
The accepted report will be used in upcoming JFAC decision meetings on program maintenance and enhancements as members set appropriation levels for fiscal 2026.
