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Ogden forecast shows decline; district proposes four elementary boundary changes and schedules open house
Summary
Consultants presented a resident‑based enrollment forecast showing a five‑to‑six percent decline over five years and proposed four north‑end elementary boundary adjustments tied to the new Hillcrest attendance area. The board scheduled public open houses and a special meeting for a possible final vote.
Consultants from MGT Davis presented the district’s resident-based enrollment forecast and a map of proposed elementary attendance-area boundary adjustments; the presentation showed a general declining trend and recommended a small set of targeted changes in the north end of the district.
MGT consultant Marcy Horner told the board the district’s resident student total for the base year was 9,637 and the forecast projects a decline of approximately 5.8 percent by 2029 if current trends continue. The forecast uses the district’s student data, birth-rate and mobility factors, and a review of active residential developments. The firm reported 31 tracked housing projects totaling about 2,740 housing units, and said 71 percent of those units are apartments (which generate fewer students per unit than single-family homes).
Based on the forecast and school locations, the district proposed four north-end adjustments to elementary attendance areas: shifting a cluster of parcels from East Ridge to the new Hillcrest attendance area; moving parcels east of 400 E and south of 700 S from Bonneville to East Ridge; reassigning a small Bonneville pocket to Heritage to improve walkability; and a technical correction at the southeast corner of Lincoln to follow parcel lines. MGT’s matrix shows about 667 students would be affected under the new map if the changes were in effect today; the presentation noted that many students already attend the schools to which they would be reassigned and that boundary exceptions remain an option for families.
The board and staff described steps for community outreach: a public open house is scheduled for Jan. 23 (district provided date verbalized during the meeting) and staff will collect public feedback digitally; the board plans a special meeting on Jan. 30 to review public comment and consider final approval. District staff said they will provide an interactive map and a “find my school” tool on the district website and accept boundary-exception requests for families who wish to remain at their current school.
Why it matters: Enrollment forecasts drive staffing, school capacity planning and potential capital decisions. The proposed shifts are limited in scope and intended to improve walkability and balance enrollments ahead of the new Hillcrest attendance area coming online.
Ending: Staff will publicize open-house times, collect feedback, and forward results to the board for the Jan. 30 special meeting; if approved, the new attendance areas would be implemented per the district timetable.
