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Sycamore board reviews five-year forecast assumptions; treasurer warns cash balance will fall below board target by FY27
Summary
Treasurer Christian reviewed assumptions for the district's five-year general fund forecast, proposing an 11% reassessment revenue assumption, 3% salary growth beyond negotiated contracts and 5% annual health-care increases; the board asked staff to apply the assumptions and return with modeled scenarios Nov. 20.
Christian, the district finance presenter, told the Sycamore Community Schools Board of Education the treasurer's office would present the assumptions that will produce the district's five-year general-fund forecast and asked the board to confirm whether they are reasonable.
Christian said he proposed an 11% revenue increase assumption tied to the next county property-tax update (a mid-cycle update after a 22% valuation jump this year), explained how millage rollbacks limit revenue growth and noted the district still receives additional revenue only from its inside millage (4.63 mills). "11% is what I am proposing," Christian said when asking trustees whether that assumption seemed reasonable.
The treasurer walked the board through other material assumptions the forecast will use. On state funding, staff said the current law includes a phased-in Fair School Funding change (67% phase-in now with a statutory minimum funding floor of 10% for districts like Sycamore) and that the administration is not assuming the legislature will add the final two years of the phase-in in the forecast because those changes are not guaranteed. Christian told trustees the five-year forecast is a "snapshot" based on the assumptions approved at the time of filing with the State of Ohio.
On expenditures, the board discussed labor and benefits. The treasurer reminded trustees that two major bargaining agreements expire in fiscal years 2026 and 2027 and recommended including modest increases rather than zeroes. After discussion the board directed staff to include a 3% annual salary-growth assumption beyond negotiated contract years and to use 5% annual growth for health-care costs in the forecast. Trustees noted recent health-insurance increases effective this January of 8.9% for one plan and roughly 12% for the PPO; one trustee called 5% "really low" based on recent national trends, and staff agreed to gather insurer and consortium trend data for the Nov. 6 discussion.
Board members were shown an enrollment slide and a cash-balance projection tied to the board policy that the district maintain a general-fund cash balance at or above 25% of operating expenditures. The treasurer flagged that under the baseline assumptions the cash balance is likely to fall below the 25% line in FY27 and looks substantially worse by FY29, and said this result will "trigger discussion and action" on revenue or expenditure options at upcoming meetings.
Next steps: staff will apply the board-confirmed assumptions to the forecast and present modeled scenarios at the Nov. 20 board meeting; the treasurer also said he will try to bring insurance-trend information to the Nov. 6 meeting.
