ACCD outlines housing shortfall, links housing supply to workforce strategy

Secretary Lindsey Kerley, head of the Agency of Commerce and Community Development, told the Vermont House Committee on Commerce and Economic Development on Jan. 16 that the state faces a severe housing shortage and that addressing it is central to efforts to grow the economy.

Kerley said the latest Vermont Housing Needs Assessment, compiled by the Vermont Housing Finance Agency, shows the state "needs 24 1,000 to 36,000 new rental and owner occupied homes by 2029 in order to meet current and future demand." She added that Chittenden County alone needs "8,000 to 11,000 homes."

The secretary said those targets far exceed current building levels. "Currently, there are about 2,300 building permits each year statewide," Kerley said, and noted additional losses to the housing stock: "every year, we lose hundreds of homes, at least 500 homes, due to age and disrepair." Kerley framed housing as a workforce and economic-development issue, saying communities and employers cannot recruit or retain workers without affordable, accessible housing within a reasonable commute.

Kerley cited income and price imbalances as compounding the problem. Using 2023 W-2 data from the Vermont Department of Taxes and VHFA calculations, she said roughly 66% of Vermonters earn $50,000 a year or less, while median listing prices in 2023 ranged from about $320,000 in Essex County to $590,000 in Chittenden County. "When you imagine that people...shouldn't be spending more than 30% of their income on housing," Kerley said, it leaves little for childcare, groceries and other costs.

The agency described a three-part strategic objective that ties housing to broader economic goals: expanding the tax base, raising wages by fostering higher-paying sectors, and increasing housing stock to meet workforce needs. Kerley said ACCD will continue to coordinate economic, housing and community development programs and invited committee engagement as the session proceeds.

Committee members pressed for detail on income and employer structure in Vermont, and Kerley acknowledged that the state’s employment base is dominated by many small employers whose combined wages drive down median figures. She said agency staff can supply more detailed wage data, including state employee compensation, on request.

Kerley also introduced agency staff who will work with the committee and noted that the housing team was not present at this briefing but will be available for deeper dives in future sessions.

Looking ahead, the secretary said the housing shortfall is long term and will require sustained action across housing production, rehabilitation and workforce development.