JFO previews Jan. 22 consensus revenue forecast; general fund running about $61 million ahead through December

Christopher Root, an economist with the Joint Fiscal Office, told a legislative committee on Jan. 16 that the Joint Fiscal Office (JFO) will publish the next consensus revenue forecast on Jan. 22 and that the figures in his slides will change when that forecast is released.

The JFO briefing explained that Vermont’s consensus revenue forecast sets the official baseline used by the emergency board and the legislature for budgeting. Root said the forecast focuses on the three major state funds—the General Fund, the Education Fund and the Transportation Fund—and does not capture most special-fund or dedicated-fee revenues.

Root said, “Vermont is the only state that doesn't have a legal requirement to balance its budget, but Vermont balances its budget. And how you do that is through this process called the consensus revenue forecast.” He described the process in which the administration’s economist (identified in the session as Tom Covett) and the legislature’s economist (Jeff Carr) prepare independent analyses, compare notes and arrive at a common set of numbers for the emergency board to adopt.

Why it matters: the forecast provides the binding revenue baseline for the upcoming budget and the Budget Adjustment Act, and credit-rating agencies cite Vermont’s consensus forecasting and fiscal management as positive factors when setting the state’s bond rating. Root told…