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Lane County labor market near pre‑pandemic levels; housing costs strain affordability at lower end of market
Summary
County economist Brian Rooney told commissioners that Lane County has nearly recovered pandemic job losses but faces tight labor supply, low vacancy balance in some sectors, rising retirements and housing affordability pressures, particularly at the lower third of the market.
Brian Rooney, Lane County’s economic analyst, told the board that local employment has nearly returned to pre‑pandemic levels but that the recovery and future growth bring persistent challenges: a tight labor market, sectoral mismatches and affordability pressures.
Rooney said Lane County lost roughly 25,000 jobs (about 15 percent) in spring 2020 and has recovered about 25,300 jobs — about 98 percent of the loss — bringing the county close to its pre‑pandemic employment peak. "Lane County has almost reached pre pandemic employment levels," Rooney said.
He described a slow but positive one‑year employment growth (June 2023 to June 2024) of about 1,400 jobs, or 0.8 percent, with health services, leisure and hospitality and government sectors recovering most strongly because they were hardest hit in 2020. Construction and retail trade had year‑over‑year declines in the most recent data, Rooney said; he flagged a skills mismatch as a barrier in industries that are contracting or where unemployed workers do not match vacancies.
Rooney discussed labor‑supply factors that will shape future availability: retirements are up (he cited a 26 percent rise over a decade and a 5 percent increase since 2019) and are expected to remain elevated for 10–15 years. He identified childcare availability as a constraint on labor supply and said that expanding affordable childcare could help bring people into the workforce.
On housing, Rooney said median housing values have risen, and the lower third of the market (the more affordable end) has moved away from the national trend, creating particular stress at the affordable end. Residential building permits were up in 2024 (through November), he said, and Lane County has produced roughly the 1,400 units per year estimated to be needed to keep pace with population growth in three of the last four years. He cautioned that slower population growth would lower the unit target and affect affordability dynamics.
Rooney compared urban and rural Lane County: rural areas (outside the Eugene–Springfield urban growth boundary) account for about 19 percent of jobs and tend to concentrate in manufacturing, construction, transportation, warehousing and natural resources (including logging and agriculture); average wages are lower in rural Lane County than in urban areas.
Looking ahead, Rooney presented 10‑year projections showing about 7 percent job growth in Lane County by 2033, with construction, private education and health services, and leisure and hospitality among the fastest growing sectors. He highlighted replacement openings driven by retirements and occupational transfers as a major source of hiring need in coming years.
Rooney closed by offering contact information and a county subscription and survey for residents seeking the full datasets and projections.
