CHEV: Enrollment has rebounded to pre‑COVID levels but long‑term decline in traditional students will force hard choices

Scott Fleming, director of the State Council of Higher Education for Virginia, told the Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee’s higher education subcommittee that ‘‘Total enrollment at Virginia's public institutions of higher education has roughly returned to pre COVID levels,’’ while warning that demographic shifts will create sustained headwinds for many campuses.

Fleming said the statewide rebound is stronger than the national trend — roughly 4.6% year‑over‑year in Virginia versus about 2.5% nationally — and credited expanded enrollment of Black, Hispanic and Asian students and growth in dual‑enrollment programs. ‘‘That favorability ... is driven primarily by enrollment of students of color and traditionally underrepresented populations,’’ he said.

The report to the subcommittee laid out uneven results beneath the headline numbers. Fleming said several public four‑year institutions have seen 10‑year undergraduate enrollment declines of 13% to 37%. He warned that projected declines in the number of traditional high‑school graduates — roughly 6% fewer graduates over the next five years followed by an extended period of declines — will require institutions to pursue alternative enrollment strategies or make difficult management and capital‑planning decisions.

Fleming pointed to dual‑enrollment growth as a significant contributor to undergraduate enrollment. He said dual‑enrollment accounted for about 53,000 enrollments in the most recent program year, a roughly 10% increase from the prior year, and that degree and credential completions rose about 10% over the same period.

On affordability and finance, Fleming referenced a Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC) finding that ‘‘net price’’ for Virginia public students is higher than peers in some measures, and said the General Assembly’s recent two‑year budget is historically supportive but that much of the surplus is one‑time funding. He told the subcommittee that several financial aid programs — including a program he described as the ‘‘MSDEB stipend,’’ the Tuition Assistance Grant and a workforce credential grant — would require additional appropriations to meet currently authorized maximum award levels.

Fleming also highlighted agency priorities for 2025: funding the Virginia Longitudinal Data System (which he said has operated with a general‑fund deficit), improving data visualization, revising the state strategic plan, and changing the program‑approval process to allow institutions greater agility to launch workforce‑oriented programs while holding them to program‑productivity accountability.

Fleming told the panel that some capital requests might be met by repurposing or renovating existing space rather than new construction if enrollment declines persist, and that institutions should consider leaning into recruiting nontraditional students — including adult learners and underrepresented groups — to mitigate demographic decline.

The subcommittee did not take formal action at the meeting. The chair noted the panel will meet again on Thursday, Jan. 16, and that the full Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee will convene in the same room later that day to hear member amendments.