Get Full Government Meeting Transcripts, Videos, & Alerts Forever!
Get email alerts on the Enrollment Projections topic
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Shoreline projects largely flat enrollment for 2025–26; running-start participation expected to rise
Summary
District staff presented preliminary 2025–26 enrollment projections showing a near‑steady full‑time‑equivalent (FTE) count of about 9,000 students, growth in kindergarten and ninth grade, and continuing increases in Running Start participation; officials said the forecast will inform the district budget and will be updated in March.
Assistant Superintendent of Business and Operations Angela von Essen and Director of Finance and Business Services Art Clark presented the Shoreline School District’s preliminary enrollment projections for the 2025–26 school year, telling the board the district currently projects about 9,004 full‑time‑equivalent (FTE) students.
Von Essen said the average FTE so far this year is 8,996 and that the district’s preliminary projection for 2025–26 is 9,004 FTE. She noted the distinction between FTE (used for state funding calculations) and headcount (a single‑day snapshot used by demographers), and warned the two measures can produce different results for planning and finance. “It’s crucial for us to project and have and base our information on actual FTE calculations because that drives our funding,” von Essen said.
The presentation highlighted a few specific trends: kindergarten enrollment rose from 609 last year to an average of 629 so far this year; ninth grade has shown an uptick that staff attributed in part to transfers from private or choice programs; and the district expects declines in the 11th and 12th grades after accounting for students who participate in Running Start. Staff projected Running Start participation at roughly 265 FTE for 2025–26 (compared with 267 FTE in the current year average) and said participation has risen from 13.6% of eligible 11th/12th graders two years ago to about 17% this year.
Von Essen and Clark also reviewed a demographer’s November forecast, which uses an October 1 headcount and estimated 9,385 students under its medium‑growth scenario; staff stressed the demographer’s headcount forecast includes Running Start and new housing assumptions but does not map directly to the FTE basis the state uses for funding. As of December 2024, the district’s year‑to‑date average FTE was about 121 FTE below the budgeted FTE, von Essen said, and she warned that enrollment typically declines further after January.
Board members asked for more detail on the Running Start population (how many are full‑time versus part‑time) and on the October spike in 10th grade; staff said they do not have a current breakdown of full‑time versus part‑time Running Start students but will gather more registration detail and that the 10th grade increase is a cohort effect that will move through the system.
Von Essen said the district will update its 2025–26 projections for the board in March and that the budget team needs KinderFest registration totals, final running‑start registrations and building‑level input from registrars to refine the forecast.
The preliminary projections will feed the district’s budget planning for the coming year; staff asked the board to treat the March update as the working enrollment that will guide budget decisions.
