Consensus revenue estimate shows lower 2025 receipts as tax changes shift timing and sources of revenue

Legislative Research analyst Eddie Pinner told the Kansas Senate Tax Committee that the consensus revenue estimate was revised downward for fiscal year 2025, with total state general fund (SGF) receipts now projected at $9.73 billion. He said the downward revision “is largely attributable to tax policy changes” enacted in recent legislative sessions and to timing effects from those changes.

The change matters because the consensus estimate is the baseline the Legislature and governor use to plan budgets. Pinner explained the consensus process — joint estimates produced twice yearly by legislative research and the governor’s Division of the Budget — and said the next formal revision will be finalized in April when the group meets on April 17 this year because April 20 falls on a Sunday.

Pinner summarized the numbers for lawmakers: actual SGF receipts for fiscal 2024 totaled about $10.10 billion; the revised estimate for fiscal 2025 is $9.73 billion with tax receipts of $9.65 billion; and the initial estimate for fiscal 2026 rises modestly to about $9.85 billion. On individual tax lines, the forecast showed a projected 4.7 percent increase in…