Legislative Research projects FY2026 receipts up slightly after a downward revision to FY2025

Eddie Pinner of Legislative Research presented the state's consensus revenue estimates to the Committee on Taxation, reporting a downward revision to fiscal year 2025 and a modest increase projected for fiscal year 2026.

The revised estimate for fiscal year 2025 was reported at $9.73 billion — a reduction of $59.8 million (0.6%) relative to prior estimates — with the taxes-only portion reduced by $72.2 million, a 3.5% decline from the prior year. For fiscal year 2026 the initial estimate presented was $9.845 billion, an increase of $114 million (1.2%) over the revised 2025 estimate.

Why it matters: These consensus figures (jointly produced by Legislative Research and the Division of the Budget) underpin budget planning and the state’s fiscal outlook. Changes in tax policy enacted in the regular and special sessions, reductions to the food sales tax, and tax credits tied to large projects were cited as primary drivers of year-to-year receipt changes.

Key revisions and drivers

- Individual income-tax receipts: revised upward by $113.8 million for FY2025 (a projected growth into FY2026 of about $200 million or 4.7%).

- Corporation income-tax receipts: revised downward by $211.5 million for FY2025; a modest projected increase of $10 million (0.7%) is included for FY2026, tempered by anticipated subsequent tranches of investment tax credits tied to the Panasonic Apex…