Senate human services panel warned Medicaid, long‑term care spending will rise as DHS previews $23.6B general fund footprint

The Minnesota Senate Human Services Committee heard a two‑hour overview on Jan. 15 of the Department of Human Services (DHS) budget and forecasts, with agency staff and the committee fiscal analyst saying Medicaid and long‑term‑care waiver spending will drive most growth in the coming biennium.

Kyle Raymond, fiscal analyst to the committee, told members the combined health and human services budget for the 2026–27 biennium is roughly $60,000,000,000, with general‑fund spending of about $23,650,000,000. He said federal funds account for a majority of the total — about 52% — largely because of federal matching for Medical Assistance (MA).

The presentation and subsequent discussion focused on where state general‑fund dollars flow within the combined budget area. Elise Bailey, budget director at the Department of Human Services, told the committee DHS’s portion of the general‑fund base is about $19.8 billion, and that the portion of DHS under this committee’s jurisdiction is roughly $15.7 billion. She said the human services committee’s own general‑fund base for the 2026–27 biennium is about $16.8 billion.

Why it matters: Medical Assistance and long‑term care programs account for the vast majority of the DHS budget, leaving limited room in the general fund for other priorities. Bailey said MA and related long‑term‑care waivers and services constitute about 89% of DHS spending; long‑term‑care waivers and home‑based services alone accounted for roughly $15.3 billion of DHS’s base in the…