Stantec presents preliminary housing market study: Roseville sees strong job base, aging housing stock and renter cost burdens

Consultants from Stantec presented preliminary findings of a housing market study to the Roseville Economic Development Authority on Jan. 13, highlighting demand indicators, demographic shifts and housing stock characteristics that staff and the consultant said should guide next-step policy discussions.

Tom Layton of Stantec and colleague Zoe Tsai told the board Roseville has durable locational assets — retail districts, parks, lakes and proximity to employment centers — and a job-rich economy where more people commute into the city to work than leave. Layton said the city’s major industry categories include health and social assistance, retail and food service, and a set of industrial and professional businesses concentrated in industrial districts.

Key data points the presentation flagged included:

- A high share of older residents: Stantec reported senior housing represents roughly 15% of the city’s housing stock (about 2,400 senior units), and age-cohort charts show a relatively large share of residents 65 and older compared with comparison cities.

- Housing stock age: Roughly 75% of Roseville housing was built between 1940 and 1980, which the consultant said implies higher maintenance and upgrade needs.

- Cost-burdened renters: Layton reported about 46% of renter households pay more than 30% of income for housing costs, and Roseville has a higher share of severely cost-burdened renters than many comparison cities.

- Vacancy and demand signals: For preexisting apartment buildings (units built prior to the most recent wave of new construction), Stantec reported a Roseville vacancy rate near 4.5% compared with a metropolitan vacancy rate over 7%, and rents in older properties had been rising faster than metro averages — indicators the presenter described as evidence of market demand.

- Short-term projected household growth: The Metropolitan Council projection used by the consultants forecast about 511 new housing units in Roseville over the next 10 years; Stantec distributed that projected growth across household types and recent mover profiles to suggest likely demand for unit sizes and tenure types.

Layton emphasized the analysis is a research phase that establishes a baseline and that the next conversation should focus on policy options — zoning, small-scale production incentives, preservation of affordability and specific tools for senior housing, maintenance of older stock and support for financially precarious households.

Board members asked about data lags (the consultant noted some U.S. Census ACS data are multi-year averages and can lag by several years), recent new construction in Roseville and how rent increases in older buildings affect natural-affordability comparisons. Stantec staff said they will return with strategy options and recommended some additional local data and stakeholder engagement to refine target interventions.

"This is the conversation about the research," Layton said, "What does it say about Roseville's housing context?" He told members the research is intended to lead to a menu of potentially implementable strategies that the city can consider.