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Economic advisor warns tariffs and immigration policy could slow Santa Fes growth; housing and construction present mixed signals
Summary
Riley White, the city's economic advisor, told the Finance Committee that potential national tariff policy and stricter immigration rules pose downside risks to Santa Fe's economy, while local tourism and property tax receipts provide revenue resilience. He also reviewed housing, rent, labor and construction trends.
Riley White, the citys economic advisor and associate dean at the University of New Mexico, presented a post-election economic update to the Finance Committee on Jan. 13, telling council members that tariffs and immigration policy were the two national issues most likely to affect Santa Fe over the next few years.
White said tariffs, especially broad or prolonged measures, act as a drag on gross domestic product and can raise consumer prices by reducing competition. He noted the experience of a 2009 U.S. tariff on Chinese tires that preserved some domestic tire jobs but led to higher consumer prices and net job losses in retail. "Tariffs are almost universally a bad thing on the economy," White said, adding that the scale and duration of any tariff program would determine local effects.
On immigration, White told the committee the state hosts roughly 200,000 immigrants (about 10% of the population) and an estimated 63,000 unauthorized immigrants, many concentrated in major cities and in industries important to Santa Fe such as leisure and hospitality and construction. "If you cramp down on temporary authorizations for work or long-term authorizations ... we are gonna be looking at a stricter hiring environment in Santa Fe," White said, warning that tighter restrictions could complicate hiring for small businesses and reduce labor supply.
White reviewed local indicators: consumer credit card debt and default rates had risen, multifamily rental increases have leveled but remain high, building permits are down sharply from 2023 highs and construction bid prices are substantially higher than in 2019. He noted the rental-market "filtering" effect whereby new, higher-end construction can free up lower-cost units but said Santa Fes demand and market dynamics mean new units often fill with higher-income residents and do little to relieve affordability.
He flagged that New Mexico has a relatively large share of employment in government jobs, and state-level revenue surpluses and capital spending will channel investments to the region. "Sources of hope: our tourism market will remain healthy and lodgers tax will remain healthy," he said, while cautioning that tariff or immigration shocks could reduce discretionary spending and GRT receipts.
Committee members asked about timing of tariff effects and local construction supply; White said price impacts vary by industry and could emerge in months for perishable imports and within a year or two for other supply-chain goods, while prolonged tariff responses could slow GDP growth by around 1.5% over several years per international studies he cited.
Councilors thanked White for the briefing and discussed how city capital projects and labor supply intersect with broader trends in construction costs and the labor market.
