Demographer: Enrollment to Rise But Shift by Attendance Area; Board Told to Redistrict for 2025-26

The Lebanon Community School Corp received a 10-year enrollment forecast on Jan. 13, 2025, showing districtwide population growth but uneven increases across attendance areas and recommending redistricting timed for the 2025–26 school year.

Dr. Jerome McKibben, of McKibben Demographics, told the board the forecast is built from local population and housing assumptions and stressed that "these are forecasts, not projections." He identified four high‑leverage assumptions—mortgage rates, home sales mix (new versus existing), cohort age structure and transfer trends—and told the board the model assumes a net negative transfer of about 550 students per year.

Why this matters: The forecast projects an 11% population growth for the district between 2020 and 2030, but that rise will not be evenly distributed. Perry Wirth attendance area is expected to see the largest relative increase in students, while Central and Harney are projected to grow more modestly. McKibben emphasized that cohort timing—how existing preschool and elementary cohorts age through the system—will drive short‑term pressures in specific schools even where overall district growth is steady.

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