Demographer: Enrollment to Rise But Shift by Attendance Area; Board Told to Redistrict for 2025-26

The Lebanon Community School Corp received a 10-year enrollment forecast on Jan. 13, 2025, showing districtwide population growth but uneven increases across attendance areas and recommending redistricting timed for the 2025–26 school year.

Dr. Jerome McKibben, of McKibben Demographics, told the board the forecast is built from local population and housing assumptions and stressed that "these are forecasts, not projections." He identified four high‑leverage assumptions—mortgage rates, home sales mix (new versus existing), cohort age structure and transfer trends—and told the board the model assumes a net negative transfer of about 550 students per year.

Why this matters: The forecast projects an 11% population growth for the district between 2020 and 2030, but that rise will not be evenly distributed. Perry Wirth attendance area is expected to see the largest relative increase in students, while Central and Harney are projected to grow more modestly. McKibben emphasized that cohort timing—how existing preschool and elementary cohorts age through the system—will drive short‑term pressures in specific schools even where overall district growth is steady.

Key findings and numbers presented included: a district population increase of about 11% for the decade; net migration of roughly 890 people for one multi‑year period cited by the presenter; a net negative transfer rate near 550 students per year (the 2024 figure cited was negative 563); and a current district headcount that the presenter and staff placed at about 601 students in October (presenter noted the forecast aligns closely with that figure). McKibben warned that while new home construction contributes, "existing home sales" and the age structure of homeowners are major determinants of future enrollment.

On attendance‑area specifics, McKibben showed Perry Wirth rising from about 601 to roughly 853 under current boundaries in the forecast window, then flattening after about 2030 because larger upper‑grade cohorts will move out of the elementary grades. He said the district’s high school enrollment could rise from under 1,100 now to about 1,300 in 10 years if current trends hold.

Board staff and presenters told the board the timing of the district’s redistricting work is "on target" and should be completed in time for the 2025–26 school year. Dr. McKibben summarized the policy implication plainly: "You need to redistrict. You don't need to build, pretty much." Board staff reiterated that elementary designs include flex classrooms and some built‑in expandability; staff estimated that with flex rooms and dedicated pre‑K rooms Perry Wirth could accommodate roughly 725 students without portables, and up to 675–725 was discussed as feasible depending on classroom use and class‑size targets.

On staffing, presenters said moves between buildings would be handled first by a voluntary transfer process; if volunteers exceed available slots, or are fewer than needed, an involuntary transfer policy could be used. Special education programming would shift in at least two districtwide self‑contained programs as boundaries change.

Board members asked about how housing pipelines are incorporated. McKibben said the forecast uses county permitting and platting data and developer build‑out timelines (for example, a 312‑home subdivision may be a five‑year buildout producing roughly 60 homes per year). He warned that mortgage rates above about 7% could slow buildout timelines and reduce household yields. He also noted state transfer/voucher rules have increased the number of households eligible for private school vouchers; the presenter said the voucher income cap had been raised to about $225,000 and that change contributed to larger out‑transfers statewide.

Public comment during the presentation raised questions about apartments and subsidized housing (the presenter referenced "Section 42" as a government‑subsidized housing category). McKibben said most such shifts require local planning approvals and that a one‑time addition of a small number of subsidized units would not by itself change the long‑term forecast.

The presentation closed with staff urging the board to proceed with redistricting rather than delay, noting cohort waves already in the system and the operational difficulty of running schools at near‑100% functional capacity. No formal board vote or ordinance was recorded at the meeting on the forecast or redistricting timing.

The district plans to publish the forecast and overlay it with the board’s three redistricting options; staff said redistricting decisions would trigger follow‑up work on transportation, staffing transfers and classroom assignments.