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Cave Creek Unified superintendent warns of enrollment decline, possible elementary closures and budget pressure
Summary
Superintendent Bill Dozel told the Carefree Town Council that the district faces declining kindergarten cohorts, heavy reliance on local property taxes (about 74% of revenue), and that board hearings are planned on possible consolidation of elementary schools as five campuses operate at roughly 47% capacity.
Superintendent Bill Dozel of Cave Creek Unified School District presented enrollment, academic and budget information to the Carefree Town Council, saying the district is confronting a sustained decline in student cohorts and related budget pressure.
Dozel said the district’s kindergarten cohorts are smaller than the number of students leaving high school: "We're typically graduating 400-plus students and only bringing in 200 kindergartners," he said, tying the enrollment shortfall to lower birth rates in 2008 and during the COVID period.
He said the district’s revenue mix is heavily weighted to local property tax: "74% of it comes from local property tax. We get about 22% from the state of Arizona and only about 4% from the feds," Dozel said. He reported the district’s operating budget is about $32,000,000 and described the district as a "non state aid" district that receives no basic state aid under the most recent allocation method described in the presentation.
Dozel told the council that five elementary schools in the district are operating at roughly 47% capacity and that the board is holding the required public hearings as the district studies consolidation options. "We're looking at potentially closing a couple of elementary schools," he said, calling the choice difficult but linked to the need to "find our right size" to sustain programs and budget balance.
The superintendent highlighted student outcomes and career-focused programs: high test scores on state assessments compared with statewide averages, dual-enrollment credits (265 students earned college credit in the prior year), and career and technical education results with 148 of 168 students passing related occupational assessments.
Dozel also discussed the growth of the state-sponsored Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs) in his district and said the most recent quarterly report showed about 1,001 students in the district using ESAs. He said the district cannot always determine whether those students were previously in private or home schools before taking ESAs.
Council members asked where the district is losing students; Dozel said Paradise Valley and Pinnacle-area high schools account for some cross-border open-enrollment movement. He said the board will take action after public forums and hearings.
Why this matters: Falling enrollment changes state funding and school staffing formulas and can require consolidation of buildings and services. The superintendent urged community engagement while outlining the district’s academic programs and career-path options.
Dozel closed by inviting council members to visit campuses and by describing the district’s priorities of preparing students for enrollment, employment or enlistment after graduation.
