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Arlington board previews 2025–26 enrollment projections; staff recommends medium April roll-up
Summary
Staff presented methodologies for projecting 2025–26 enrollment and recommended a conservative “medium” April roll-up projection; the board will vote on an enrollment projection at its Jan. 27 meeting. Staff said lower kindergarten numbers are the main near-term driver of uncertainty.
Arlington School District staff presented a preview of projected student enrollment for 2025–26, describing three standard projection methods and recommending the board consider a conservative “medium” April roll-up projection when it votes on an enrollment figure at the board’s Jan. 27 meeting.
The presentation, given by Dr. Sweeting on behalf of Brian Lewis, explained that the district uses full-time-equivalent (FTE) counts—calculated over the September–June school year—to set staffing and funding. Staff described three projection methods: an April roll-up, a weighted historical average, and an OSPI cohort-survival model. The district recommended the medium April roll-up because it is more conservative and less sensitive to short-term volatility.
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