North Dakota transmission authority warns EPA rules could threaten grid reliability, urges support for baseload and resilience grants

Jordan Connehion, deputy director at the North Dakota Industrial Commission, told the joint House and Senate Natural Resources and Energy Committee on Jan. 22 that studies produced by the North Dakota Transmission Authority (NDTA) show proposed federal air and greenhouse‑gas rules could reduce available generation and threaten the ability of the region’s grids to meet peak demand.

The Transmission Authority, Connehion said, produced engineering studies that the state is using in litigation and in planning discussions with regional transmission organizations. “The EPA rule seeks to cut the allowable mercury content by 10 times. It would decimate the coal industry,” Connehion said, adding that related modeling showed the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) could be unable to meet peak demand by 2029 under that rule.

Why it matters: North Dakota sits in two regional transmission organizations—MISO and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP)—and Connehion said both organizations are raising concerns about declining accredited capacity as more intermittent renewables replace conventional baseload units. Declining accredited capacity, he and other presenters told the committee, can reduce resource adequacy and make the grid less resilient to high‑impact, low‑frequency events such as extreme winter weather.

Connehion outlined NDTA activities that include producing studies to support state litigation and to inform RTO planning, commissioning an annual grid‑resilience report required by statute, and participating in capacity and congestion studies. He said a capacity study, produced in collaboration with the Energy Research Center (ERC) and paid for with litigation funds, was due for release in August and would identify congestion areas and capacity constraints relevant to large new loads such as data centers.

On the greenhouse‑gas side, Connehion said a second NDTA study modeled potential constraints on gas‑fired generators and found that, if the proposed rules took effect as written, MISO and SPP could face difficulty meeting peak demand by 2028–2030. “Three to five years from now, these are startling things to contemplate,” he said.

Committee members pressed for specifics. Representative Conmee asked which public policies were most threatening; Connehion answered that the EPA proposals he described were the “biggest ones.” Senator Enget and Representative Novak pressed on mitigation, and Connehion told them the state’s options are largely twofold: continue litigation to challenge or slow rules and accelerate new baseload generation in North Dakota, including combined‑cycle natural gas or other dispatchable resources.

Connehion also summarized NDTA recommendations to state policymakers: support retention of existing baseload generation, expedite development of new baseload capacity, and continue to participate in and support federal resiliency grant programs (including funds coming from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act). He noted utilities in the state are modernizing infrastructure and advancing resilience planning, but said “public policy has risen to the top” of risks to reliability over the prior four years.

NDTA funding request: Connehion said the authority wants a larger internal budget so its executive director can commission studies without seeking outside funding. He described a request to increase NDTA’s budget from its current allocation (named in the presentation as $300,000) to a larger sum for in‑house studies; he did not provide a single unambiguous final figure in the committee presentation.

Grants and federal engagement: Connehion described NDTA participation in federal resiliency and grid modernization competitions and urged continued state support for the 15% state match required by certain federal formula grants. He said the NDTA’s reports have been shared with RTOs and the attorney general’s office; Phil Axe, North Dakota's solicitor general, was described as “deeply involved” in litigation that relies on NDTA studies.

What the committee heard about timing and scale: Presenters and committee members repeatedly emphasized that accredited capacity values for renewables are lower than nameplate capacity and that retirements of fossil and combined coal/gas units have been replaced largely by wind. Connehion and others warned this trend means accredited capacity may decline even while installed capacity rises.

Outlook and next steps: Connehion asked legislators to support policies that stabilize or grow baseload capacity and to continue state participation in federal resilience grant programs. He also offered to coordinate follow‑up briefings from the solicitor general’s office for members seeking litigation updates.

Ending: The committee moved on to question and answer after Connehion’s remarks; no formal votes or committee directives were taken at the hearing.