Legislative Fiscal Division and Department of Public Health and Human Services staff told the Section B subcommittee that Medicaid expansion’s scheduled termination (June 2025 absent legislative action) would trigger a redetermination for current enrollees and likely shift many people into traditional Medicaid, increasing the state’s share of costs.

Dr. Josh Poulet (LFD) said termination would not produce large savings for the state because only a portion of the 10% state share for expansion is general fund; other state special revenues finance part of the match. He also noted that many people now on expansion would be eligible for traditional Medicaid, which carries a lower federal match and thus a higher state share.

Numbers the committee heard: in the most recent fiscal year the Medicaid expansion budget totaled about $1,060,100,000. Of that, the department said approximately $32,700,000 was general fund, $57,000 was state special revenue and roughly $971,000,000 was federal funds. LFD staff said an estimated 75,100 to 100,000 people on expansion could shift to traditional Medicaid if expansion ended; the department estimated the change in state costs would be roughly comparable to current general fund spending on expansion.

LFD staff also flagged policy choices: expansion could be treated as part of HB2 with associated present‑law adjustments, or as a new proposal or as part of a reauthorizing bill. Staff said historically subcommittees sometimes defer HB2 adjustments for programs whose statutory authorization is unresolved.

The committee heard that Montana’s 2019 expansion law (House Bill 658) created state special revenue sources—chiefly increases to hospital inpatient and outpatient fees—to offset some general fund costs. LFD staff advised the subcommittee that federal policy changes remain a variable risk and that any legislative decision to reauthorize or alter expansion should consider FMAP, state special revenue availability, and the administrative burden of a new redetermination process.

Ending: LFD recommended committees weigh options for appropriation placement and contingencies; DPHHS and LFD agreed to provide enrollment and cost projections in follow‑up materials.