Treasury and the legislative fiscal agencies presented updated revenue forecasts and the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference adopted consensus estimates used for the February budget cycle.

Eric Buses of the Department of Treasury summarized agency views: forecasters expect modest U.S. and Michigan growth and a moderation in inflation. He said the agencies’ forecasts are broadly consistent with the RSQE outlook presented earlier. Buses noted that preliminary fiscal 2024 results showed some upside—Treasury estimated the state finished the year about $276 million above the May target, driven largely by stronger withholding—and that common cash interest earnings have been elevated because of temporarily high short‑term rates and delayed spending of federal ARPA funds.

Fiscal agency staff highlighted where their forecasts diverged. Ben Gichak (House Fiscal Agency) and David Zinn (Senate Fiscal Agency) said most large tax bases—income tax withholding and sales/use tax—showed limited disagreement among agencies, but smaller or more variable streams (corporate income tax, quarterly payments, common cash interest) explained much of the dollar‑value differences among the agencies’ net revenue forecasts. The Senate forecast assumed slightly higher inflation and correspondingly higher sales/use growth in later years, while the administration’s outlook was more conservative in certain years.

At the conference, principals agreed to a consensus path: combined general fund and school aid fund revenues were projected to grow modestly across the forecast horizon. The conference record shows the consensus estimates were adopted by voice vote; the floor record reports no recorded opposition.

Two formal actions were recorded: (1) adoption of K‑12 pupil membership counts (separately documented) and (2) adoption of the revenue estimates. The revenue adoption was approved by voice vote with no recorded opposition. Treasury staff said the budget stabilization fund formula, as applied to the consensus numbers, calls for no automatic pay‑ins or pay‑outs under the statutory test for the forecast horizon.

Ending: Presenters told the panel they would publish the consensus tables and noted the principal risks to the revenue outlook—trade policy, the scope and timing of tax changes, interest‑earnings volatility and corporate income tax variability—remain active topics for monitoring as the executive budget is finalized.