The Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference voted to adopt updated K‑12 pupil membership estimates that will form the pupil count basis for the governor’s February school aid budget recommendation.
Beth Bullion of the State Budget Office presented revised counts and said the current‑year membership blend was nearly unchanged from the May estimate. Bullion told the panel the updated 2024–25 membership blend is approximately 1,384,300 pupils and that the adjustment from the May forecast was small (a net downward correction of roughly 700 pupils across local districts offset by increases in public school academies). She said the draft 2025–26 estimate reflects a projected decline of about 7,200 pupils from the 2024–25 level and that the 2026–27 planning year shows a further decline of about 8,000 pupils—trends the presenters attributed primarily to continued lower birth cohorts replacing larger graduating classes.
Bullion and fiscal‑agency colleagues explained the membership blend methodology used in state funding: the current school year count is weighted 90% to the most recent fall enrollment and 10% to the prior February count. The presenters also recommended continuing a $3.5 million line for nonpublic dual‑enrollment in the MiLEAP program, which remains a separate appropriation.
Conference principals moved to adopt the pupil counts. The adoption was approved by voice vote with no recorded opposition.
Ending: The adopted counts and published adjustment factors will be used in the February executive school aid budget; state staff said they will monitor enrollment and birth‑cohort trends as the primary driver of future membership changes.