RSQE projects modest U.S. growth and gradual Michigan recovery; warns tariffs, policy uncertainty could alter path

University of Michigan economists updated the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference on the U.S. and Michigan outlook, saying the national economy is likely to keep growing at a modest pace while inflation and labor‑market changes will shape monetary policy and state outcomes.

Danielle Maniankoff, an RSQE U.S. forecasting specialist, told the panel that private consumption and business investment have been the main engines of growth and that the pace of U.S. GDP growth remained solid into the fourth quarter of 2024. She said core inflation has stopped falling recently but that “we still expect these metrics to keep trending down,” a dynamic RSQE expects will influence Federal Reserve decisions on the timing and pace of rate cuts.

RSQE Director Gabe Ehrlich presented the Michigan outlook and…