Planning Commission workshop: staff says current zoning likely yields about 70,000 homes over 10 years while demand models point to far higher need

At a Planning Commission workshop, planning staff presented an update on a countywide housing and infrastructure study and said current zoning and market patterns likely would yield roughly 70,000 new housing units over the next 10 years while the study’s demand model indicates about 90,000 units may be needed.

The study, framed around three themes—abundant housing, necessary infrastructure and distinctive communities—aims to compare projected housing demand with how much the existing zoning map and building rules are likely to produce and to identify where and what types of code changes and infrastructure investments would narrow any gap.

Greg Claxton, Planning Department staff, described the project’s methods and findings, saying staff combined local permitting data, parcel characteristics and probability modeling to estimate realistic build-out under current rules. Claxton said the team used two standard forecasts (the state data center at the Boyd Center at the University of Tennessee and Woods & Poole) and a custom Unified Housing Strategy (UHS) forecast to test demand scenarios. He said the UHS estimate “is in line with the other looks that we’ve had” and that the UHS demand estimate is about 90,000 units…