Maura Collins, executive director of the Vermont Housing Finance Agency, told the House Committee on General & Housing on Friday that Vermont will need between 24,000 and 36,000 additional homes by the end of 2029 to meet projected household growth and replace homes taken off the market.

Collins said the range comes from a housing needs assessment VHFA completed under contract with the state's Department of Housing. "If you've heard the number that we need 24,000 to 36,000 homes in the state, it came from that report," she told the committee.

Why it matters: Collins said the shortfall combines several factors — units expected to leave the housing stock because they are unsafe or converted to nonresidential use (about 2,300 over five years in the assessment), current unsheltered and sheltered homelessness (the assessment’s recent point-in-time count puts this at roughly 33,100 people), and the number of new households expected to form. The assessment also factors in a target vacancy rate to permit healthy market turnover; VHFA used standard vacancy targets of about 5% for rentals and 3% for owner-occupied housing.

Collins cautioned that the estimate is a projection based largely on recent and pre-pandemic growth rates rather than a forecast of future climate-driven migration. "We’re really good housing experts, but we’re not fortune tellers," she said, noting the light-green estimate assumes roughly the pre-2019 growth rate and the darker green estimate assumes the faster 2020–2023 pace.

Supply and production: The agency presented recent production trends showing Vermont has been producing roughly 1,200 to 3,000 housing units per year over the last decade. To meet the higher growth scenario, Collins said annual production would have to more than double to the 6,000–7,000 range.

Affordability and quality: Collins highlighted mounting affordability pressures. She said rents rose about 137% and median for-sale prices about 156% over the last two decades while incomes increased roughly 72%, and that large shares of households are cost-burdened. "Thirty-six thousand Vermonters are paying more than half their income for their housing," she said, and more than half of renters live in housing the agency classifies as unaffordable.

Housing type and demand: Collins said much of the demand is for smaller, centrally located units that suit seniors and young adults. She recommended more small, universally designed, downtown housing rather than exclusively age-restricted senior developments.

Costs of subsidized development: Collins told the committee that deeply subsidized affordable developments have become significantly more expensive. According to VHFA application data she cited, per-unit costs that were about $300,000 in 2018–19 have climbed to over $500,000 per unit in recent years. She attributed the rise to inflation, high material costs, limited labor, longer construction schedules and environmental remediation and infrastructure costs that developers and projects must absorb.

Financing and VHFA’s role: Collins explained VHFA is a self-sustaining lender created by the legislature in 1974 and that the agency finances single-family and multifamily mortgages using tax-exempt bond sales and programmatic subsidies. She described an upcoming financing need: VHFA is preparing a bond offering for roughly $45 million to keep its mortgage programs operating. Collins summarized how VHFA’s model works: the agency sells tax-exempt bonds to investors, pays them a lower tax-exempt yield and lends the proceeds as mortgages; VHFA’s operations are supported by the spread between borrowing and lending rates.

Programs and preservation: Collins noted VHFA administers federal and state tax-credit programs for rental development, a Vermont Home Improvement Program to rehabilitate vacant or code-deficient units, down-payment assistance programs and other targeted middle-income and first-generation homebuyer programs. She emphasized that addressing homelessness and housing shortages requires both supply (new or rehabs) and subsidies/services for higher-need households.

What’s next: Collins said VHFA staff, including colleague Chad Simmons, will be available to provide more data and that the agency expects to return for further testimony on program details and comparative cost studies. The committee left time open for continued questioning and follow-up.

Ending: The testimony provided the committee with the VHFA’s central estimates of need and a summary of financial and construction pressures the agency says must be addressed to increase housing supply and affordability in Vermont.