Pacific Grove Unified School District staff presented preliminary enrollment projections for 2025–26 showing a district total of 1,701 students, down from the 1,745 enrolled at the start of the 2024–25 year. Assistant Superintendent Jordan said the estimate used prior‑year grade‑roll averages and acknowledged projections will be updated with spring preschool outreach.

Key projection details

- Forest Grove Elementary projected at 331 students (net +5 vs. 2024–25 CBEDS) with a projected 48 TK students in the plan for two TK classes.
- Robert Down Elementary projected at 456 students (net +20 vs. CBEDS).
- Pacific Grove Middle projected at 430 students (net –10 vs. CBEDS).
- Pacific Grove High projected at 539 students (net –10 vs. CBEDS).

Jordan told the board that TK outreach to preschools in February will produce more reliable numbers for TK and kindergarten. He said Forest Grove currently has two TK sections this year with 11 students each, but preschool survey counts suggest one class next year could be more likely; staff elected to project two classes at this point to be conservative.

Board questions and context

Trustees discussed the causes of cohort fluctuations and asked about the district’s interdistrict transfers and attrition in transitional grades (elementary to middle and middle to high). Jordan said transient families and military moves explain some variability; he estimated 80–100 interdistrict transfers this year (staff children and others) and offered to supply a more detailed breakdown on exits and destination schools.

Trustees also suggested more systematic outreach to families at grade transition points (for example, 5th→6th and 8th→9th) to learn why families choose other high schools and whether district offerings or scheduling changes could address the causes.

Fiscal note and next steps

Jordan said enrollment changes have modest immediate effects on categorical funding tied to ADA and that the district will continue to monitor live enrollment through CBEDS updates and incorporate preschool outreach results in spring updates. The projection will be refined in coming months and used for staffing and budget planning.