Consultant outlines parcel-level population and vacancy data; council asks for scope to test planning uses

David Farmer, CEO of Metro Forecasting Models, told the Fort Myers Beach Management and Planning Session that his firm compiles parcel-level housing and seasonal-visitor data and can model how land-use changes would affect population, services and commercial demand. "I am the CEO of Metro Forecasting Models. We are a data, **** analysis and, forecasting company. We work exclusively for governments such as yours," Farmer said.

Farmer said the firm's data set for the town is current through about October 2023 and includes counts of single-family homes, multifamily units, hotel rooms and vacant commercial acreage. He cited specific figures from county property-appraiser data his team analyzed: about 21,100 single-family homes, about 6,500 multifamily units (he distinguished condo-hotels and hotel units), 35 acres of vacant commercial land, and about 227 hotel rooms as of late 2023. "As of the property appraiser's data, you had about 21,100 single family homes," Farmer said.

The presentation emphasized the firm's ability to estimate seasonal and daytime populations, to map vacant parcels at parcel granularity, and to simulate how proposed projects or policy changes would shift demand for utilities, parks and other capital needs. Farmer noted limits in some third-party sources (for example, short-term rental platforms such as VRBO and Airbnb) and a lag in county property-appraiser updates that can make very recent storm damage or rebuilding harder to capture.

Why it matters: Council members said the town lacks timely, granular population and occupancy data since Hurricane Ian and during recovery, and they want evidence they can use when reviewing development proposals or when evaluating infrastructure needs. Several council members said quantitative data on permanent versus transient residents could help support decisions about approvals, denials or mitigation requirements for private proposals.

Council members asked staff to develop a scope of work with Metro Forecasting Models so the town can test the firm's data and analysis for specifics such as: parcel-level tracking of condo reopenings, estimates of seasonal versus permanent population, and modeled impacts of proposed projects on town services and commercial demand. Vice Mayor (unnamed) and other members signaled support for moving forward; one council member asked staff to prepare a scope of work and next steps. "I like it… put together a scope of work to at least take a look at," one council member said.

Discussion highlights and limitations: Farmer said the firm has worked with the Lee County MPO and other local governments on long-range transportation plans and utility-sizing forecasts and that his interactive growth model is used to estimate capital impacts (parks, schools, fire stations) from development scenarios. He cautioned that forecasting cannot precisely predict which individual vacant lots will develop in a given year; his team works at parcel level to show likely outcomes and aggregate impacts rather than to identify the exact next three lots to be built.

Next steps and context: Council asked staff to draft a scope and cost estimate so the town can test a focused dataset (for example, condominium units coming back online and seasonal occupancy patterns) and return with recommendations. Farmer offered to provide last year's data quickly and to work with the town manager and planning staff to define deliverables.

Ending: Council members described the presentation as timely for recovery planning and welcomed a staff-prepared scope of work to test Metro Forecasting Models' data for use in permitting and capital planning.