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JFAC analyst: FY2025 revenue projection $5.99 billion; tax bills could cut future revenue
Summary
Legislative fiscal staff told the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee the adopted FY2025 revenue forecast is $5.99 billion and highlighted active tax-cut bills and judicial salary and judgeship proposals that could affect the committee's revenue target and long-term budget outlook.
The Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee received its regular “green sheet” update on projected general fund balances and pending bills that could change the state's revenue outlook.
Keith Phibbe, Division Manager of Budget Policy Analysis, said the Legislature has adopted a revenue projection for fiscal year 2025 of $5,990,000,000 and is currently carrying a balance of $463,000,000. "Every member should have a copy of this nice green piece of paper, otherwise known as the green sheet," Phibbe told the committee as he walked through the document.
Phibbe told the committee that the legislature's maintenance budget currently totals about $5,404,000,000 in JFAC action—about a 2.5% increase over last year and roughly $250,000,000 below the governor's proposal. He emphasized the committee still faces outstanding decisions on tax bills and enhancements that will affect the revenue target.
Phibbe flagged several bills that could materially change receipts. He said House Bill 40, an income tax cut, is projected to reduce revenues by about $253,000,000 in fiscal year 2026 and to grow thereafter. Other measures on the calendar include House Bill 83 and 93, and bills affecting the judiciary: Senate Bill 1028 (new judgeships in the First and Seventh Judicial Districts) and House Bill 124 (judicial salary increases).
Phibbe urged members to consider the green sheet as a running tally: where maintenance actions, tax relief proposals and judicial-related spending stand today and how those items will influence the long-term projection. He said more work remains before the committee finalizes a revenue target for the budget cycle.
The committee did not take new formal action during the presentation; staff said members will continue to review the green sheet as bills progress through the House and Senate and return to the committee with updated figures.
Phibbe said staff will update members regularly as bills move and recommended close review of the tax-relief measures before setting the panel's revenue target.
