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Economic Outlook committee recommends $5.99B for FY2025, $6.40B for FY2026; report accepted
Summary
The Joint Finance committee heard the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee (EROC) report recommending more conservative general fund revenue estimates than the governor’s, and accepted the report by unanimous consent.
The Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee on Monday accepted a report from the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee recommending general fund revenue estimates of $5,990,000,000 for fiscal year 2025 and $6,400,000,000 for fiscal year 2026.
Senator Kevin Cook, co‑chair of EROC, told JFAC the committee had completed “our overall assessment of Governor Little's general fund revenue projections” and had reviewed testimony from economists and business leaders. Cook said the committee’s median projections were below the governor’s estimates and that, after reviewing testimony and data, "we recommend cautious in making appropriations above the committee's revenue recommendation." Representative Jeff Ehlers, the committee’s co‑chair, thanked committee members for their work.
The report produced median projections lower than the governor’s presentation. Division of Financial Management materials reviewed later in the session showed the governor’s general fund revenue projection for fiscal 2025 at about $5.948 billion; EROC’s recommendation of $5.99 billion is modestly higher than that DFM figure for budgeting purposes. For fiscal 2026 the committee recommended $6.40 billion; the governor’s pessimistic forecast shown later in the meeting was approximately $6.262 billion.
Idaho’s constitution (Article VII, Section 11) requires the state to balance appropriations and expenditures within available revenues; EROC said its mission is to advise the Legislature about the reasonableness of the governor’s revenue assumptions. The committee cited economic uncertainty tied to Federal Reserve action on inflation and the pending presidential election as reasons to err on the side of caution.
Co‑chair Horman moved to accept the EROC report; Senator Woodward seconded. The committee approved the motion by unanimous consent with no recorded roll‑call votes.
While EROC supplied a recommended revenue baseline for appropriations, JFAC members and staff noted the committee’s recommendation is advisory: final revenue assumptions and appropriation decisions will be set by the Legislature during budget deliberations next week.
