Idaho agriculture posts record cash receipts in 2024; livestock drives growth, economist says

Brett Wilder, an extension economist with the University of Idaho, told the Senate Agricultural Affairs Committee that the state’s farm cash receipts are forecast to set a record in 2024 at about $11.3 billion and that livestock — particularly milk and cattle — are the primary drivers of that growth.

Wilder summarized the 2024 outlook and the near-term outlook for 2025, presenting data on cash receipts, exports, inflation-adjusted trends and costs. He said milk accounted for roughly $3.8 billion of receipts and cattle and calves about $2.9 billion. Wilder also highlighted growth in food manufacturing and said Idaho’s ag sector constitutes roughly 17% of the state’s total economic output — about $37.5 billion when measured in that analysis.

“After adjusting for inflation, Idaho farmers and ranchers are receiving the same amount of cash at the farm level that they received back in 2014,” Wilder told the committee, summarizing the effect of inflation on nominal gains. He said net farm income was forecast to increase but noted declines in direct government payments for Idaho in 2024.

Wilder drew attention to supply-side dynamics in livestock markets: the U.S. cattle herd remains in contraction, reducing supply while demand remains strong, which contributes to high prices now and a likely multi-year window before supply rebuilds. “If they tell you they do, they’re just not honest,” Wilder said when asked about anyone claiming to know what geopolitics and trade will look like at the end of 2025.

Wilder also discussed export patterns: Idaho exports about $1.2 billion in food and agriculture in a typical year and was forecasting a new high of about $1.4 billion for 2024, with roughly 44% of state exports going to Canada and Mexico and significant trade to Taiwan, Japan and Singapore. He noted particular product concentrations in dairy, live cattle and potatoes.

Committee members asked questions about tariffs, food-manufacturing growth and herd dynamics. Wilder said trade disruptions had not produced major realized impacts in Idaho to date but that producers and processors are making contingency plans. He pointed to persistent higher feed, fuel and interest costs compared with the 2021 baseline and said smaller, leveraged producers face particular pressure from fixed-cost increases.

Wilder recommended the committee receive the published slides and provided to staff the December outlook and related material.