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Idaho ag economist forecasts record cash receipts for 2024; milk and cattle lead growth
Summary
University of Idaho extension economist Brett Wilder told the committee he forecasts a new all‑time high of $11.3 billion in farm cash receipts for 2024, with milk and cattle the largest contributors, and warned that input costs and interest expenses remain pressure points for producers.
Brett Wilder, an extension economist with the University of Idaho, presented the committee with the college’s annual statewide agricultural economic outlook, forecasting a new all‑time high of $11.3 billion in farm cash receipts for 2024, driven by milk and cattle. Wilder described livestock as about 62% of cash receipts and said milk alone accounted for roughly $3.8 billion of the total in the projection.
Wilder noted the role of exports and trade: Idaho’s ag exports are concentrated in dairy products, potatoes and wheat, and about half of Idaho’s agricultural exports go to Canada and Mexico. He told senators the state is forecasting roughly $1.4 billion in food and agricultural exports for 2024, up from about $1.2 billion in prior reporting.
On costs and incomes, Wilder said net farm income was forecast to increase roughly 12% to about $3.3 billion, but he cautioned producers continue to face elevated input costs and interest expenses. "Idaho farm cash receipts have grown at a rate of 90% much better than The U.S. average of 60%," he said, but also noted that after adjusting for inflation Idaho farmers were receiving roughly the same nominal cash at the farm level as in 2014.
Wilder discussed commodity specifics: milk and calves were flagged as historic highs in cash receipts, and he highlighted growth in the egg sector — forecasting about $160 million in cash receipts for chicken eggs in Idaho — and increasing food manufacturing employment in the state. On the cattle herd, Wilder said the U.S. herd is in contraction, which supports livestock prices now but means supply may rise again as producers rebuild over a two‑ to three‑year timeframe.
He also addressed trade and policy: while tariffs and trade measures are under observation, Wilder said most potential tariff impacts had not been realized at the time of the hearing; he characterized the current posture as businesses preparing for contingencies. Wilder identified geopolitical and trade uncertainties as the primary external risks for 2025 and said crop producers remain squeezed by fixed costs and input prices even as livestock receipts have supported statewide cash‑receipt growth.
Ending: Wilder answered senators’ questions about tariffs, food manufacturing growth and herd dynamics and said he would provide follow‑up materials and the presentation slides to the committee.
