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Economic outlook committee recommends lower revenue forecasts; JFAC accepts report
Summary
The Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee accepted the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee(EROC) report, which recommends lower general-fund revenue estimates than the governor's proposals for fiscal years 2025and 2026 and urges caution on appropriations above the recommended levels.
The Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee on Friday accepted a report from the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee that recommends lower general-fund revenue estimates than those in Governor Brad Littles budget submission. The committeerecommended general-fund revenues available for appropriation of $5.99 billion for fiscal 2025 and $6.40 billion for fiscal 2026 and asked JFAC to be cautious about appropriations above those amounts.
Why it matters: EROC is statutorily charged under Article VII, Section 11 of the Idaho Constitution with reviewing revenue projections and advising the Legislature on their reasonableness. Its advice informs JFACdecisions about how much the state can safely appropriate without risking imbalance between revenues and expenditures.
EROC cochair Senator Kevin Cook summarized the committeework as a careful review of business, tax and financial data and testimony from economists and industry experts. The committeereported that its median projections are below the governorprojections: for fiscal 2025 the committeenumber is roughly $5.99 billion compared with the governorfigure the committee cited (the governorprojection listed in the committee report was higher); for fiscal 2026 the committeerecommended $6.40 billion, which the committee described as more conservative than the governorestimate.
Representative Jeff Ehlers, who also served as EROC cochair, thanked committee members and staff for the review work. After the presentation, Cochair Horman moved that JFAC accept the EROC report. Senator Woodward seconded the motion; the report was accepted by unanimous consent with no objections recorded.
The committee cautioned that economic uncertainty remains, citing the Federal Reservepolicy on inflation and uncertainty associated with the presidential election. EROC recommended that JFAC and legislative leadership use those more cautious numbers when setting appropriation levels and warned against appropriating above the committeerecommendations.
Context: The committeenoted differences between its median projections and the governorprojections and emphasized that the Legislature has the final decision on revenue assumptions used to set appropriations. The acceptance of the EROC report places the committeerecommendations in the legislative record and signals that JFAC intends to use a conservative revenue baseline in initial budget deliberations.
What happens next: JFAC will set a revenue projection during the upcoming budget process and will consider the EROC recommendations as it moves into program maintenance and enhancement decisions next week.
