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JFAC analyst reports FY2026 revenue outlook, flags tax bills that could reduce receipts
Summary
Legislative budget staff told the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee the Legislature is carrying a General Fund balance into the 2026 session, but pending tax bills — including a proposed income tax cut — could reduce projected revenues next year.
The Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee heard a General Fund update from Legislative Services Division analyst Keith Bybee on the committee’s “green sheet,” the document staff use to track revenue projections and major budget actions.
Bybee told the committee the Economic Outlook Committee adopted a revenue projection of $5.99 billion for fiscal year 2026. He said the Legislature is currently carrying a balance of about $463 million from FY2025 and that the committee’s maintenance budget decisions so far amount to $5.404 billion — a 2.5 percent year-over‑year increase and roughly $250 million below the governor’s maintenance proposal.
Why it matters: Committee members will use the green sheet numbers to set the Legislature’s revenue target and to decide which enhancement requests and policy bills can be funded. Several tax-relief measures already in the process could reduce available revenue and affect budget choices.
In describing near-term risks, Bybee highlighted House Bill 40, a proposed income tax cut the analyst said is projected to reduce General Fund receipts by about $253 million in FY2026 and to grow in later years. He also noted other tax bills at various stages: House Bill 83 and House Bill 93 were listed on the House third-reading calendar, Senate Bill 1028 would create a new judicial judge in the First Judicial District, and House Bill 124 is a judicial salary increase that could affect committee work.
Bybee asked members to remember that if an item on the green sheet lacks an asterisk it means legislative action remains to be taken; asterisks mark items where action has already occurred. He closed by saying the committee will continue to review the green sheet as bills advance across both chambers.
No formal action was taken by JFAC during the presentation; Bybee offered to answer committee questions and the committee moved on to the next item on the agenda.
Details and context: The maintenance figures Bybee cited reflect the committee’s current actions on agency base budgets; the difference from the governor’s maintenance numbers largely results from a recent health‑insurance item the committee considered. Bybee also reminded the committee that many bills affecting revenues and spending remain pending and will be reflected on future green-sheet updates.
