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JFAC analyst: FY2025 revenue projection set; tax-cut bills and judicial salary measures could shift outlook

2490612 · February 7, 2025
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Summary

Legislative analysts told the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee the Legislature is carrying a roughly $463 million balance and that pending tax-cut and judicial salary bills could reduce projected revenues starting FY2026.

The Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee heard an update on the General Fund “green sheet” budget from Division Manager of Budget Policy Analysis Keith Bybee, who told members the FY2025 revenue projection adopted earlier is $5,990,000,000 and that the Legislature currently carries a balance of about $463,000,000.

Bybee said the Legislature’s maintenance budget after recent JFAC action totals about $5,404,000,000 — roughly a 2.5% increase over the prior year and about $250,000,000 below the governor’s maintenance proposal. He highlighted several active bills that could alter revenue or spending before final budgets are set, including House Bill 40 (an income tax cut projected to reduce revenues by $253,000,000 in FY2026), other tax-relief proposals, and bills addressing judicial resources and salaries.

Why it matters: The committee must reconcile the adopted revenue projection with incoming policy choices on tax and salary bills. Bybee said many items on the green sheet remain with asterisks, indicating legislative action is still required and that JFAC members will see the green sheet updated as bills move through the House and Senate.

Most important details - Adopted revenue projection for FY2025: $5,990,000,000 (per the Economic Outlook Committee and Revenue Assessment, as reported by Bybee). - Current carryover/balance noted on the green sheet: approximately $463,000,000. - JFAC action on maintenance budgets currently totals $5,404,000,000 (about $133,862,600 higher than FY2025 original appropriation). - Major bills flagged as potential budget drivers: House Bill 40 (income tax cut, estimated $253,000,000 FY2026 impact), House Bill 83, House Bill 93, and Senate Bill 1028 (judicial judges) and a judicial salary bill referenced by number in committee discussion.

Committee context and next steps Bybee told the committee the green sheet will be reviewed regularly as bills progress across the rotunda and that JFAC still needs to take action on several items shown with asterisks on the document. He invited questions; none were raised at the time. The committee will monitor the status of tax-relief proposals and other measures that could alter the revenue target or require offsetting budget adjustments.

Document provenance: The committee presentation and figures were taken from the JFAC “green sheet” briefing presented to members during the January session. The update included the revenue projection and an agency-by-agency maintenance budget snapshot, as described by Bybee.