JFAC analyst: FY2025 revenue projection $5.99 billion; green sheet flags income tax cut and other bills that could reduce revenue

Keith Bybee, Division Manager of Budget Policy Analysis, told the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee that the Legislature adopted a fiscal year 2025 revenue projection of $5.99 billion and that the Legislature is currently carrying a balance of $463 million from the previous year.

That balance, and several pending bills, shape the committee's work on the General Fund “green sheet,” a running document analysts use to track projected revenues, appropriations and legislative actions. "If there is not an asterisk off to the side of legislative action, that means that there is action remaining to be taken," Bybee said while reviewing the document.

Why it matters: the green sheet frames the committee's revenue target and the scope of new spending the Legislature can consider. Bybee highlighted that JFAC has completed much of the maintenance budget work and that overall the maintenance budget adopted so far represents a 2.5% year‑over‑year increase.

Key details

- Revenue projection and balance: Bybee said the adopted FY2025 revenue projection is $5,990,000,000 and that the Legislature is carrying a balance of $463,000,000 from prior actions.

- Maintenance budget: The committee's maintenance budget so far in JFAC action totals about $5,404,000,000, which Bybee described as a 2.5% increase from the FY2025 original appropriation. He noted that the JFAC maintenance total is about $250,000,000 below the governor's maintenance proposal.

- Tax bills affecting the projection: Bybee called out House Bill 40, the income tax cut proposal, which he summarized as projecting a $253,000,000 reduction in FY2026 and growing thereafter. He also noted other tax‑relief bills visible on the sheet and several measures that will affect committee work, including a judicial staffing bill (Senate Bill 1028) and a judicial salary bill introduced in the House.

- Process and next steps: Bybee told members they will continue to see the green sheet updated as bills move through committees and across the rotunda; the committee must reconcile bills that contain revenue reductions with appropriations decisions.

Committee reaction and context

Members asked no substantive questions during the presentation; Bybee closed by offering to answer questions as the committee continues reviewing the green sheet in subsequent meetings. The analyst emphasized that multiple tax bills still require action and that the committee will need to account for their revenue effects when setting final targets.

Looking ahead

The committee will continue to update and review the green sheet as House and Senate versions of bills are reported and as revenue and appropriation actions are completed.