Seattle forecast council adopts baseline October revenue forecast; office flags elevated uncertainty

Chair Dan Strauss called the Oct. 20 Select Budget Committee meeting to consider the city—s updated economic and revenue forecast, which the Forecast Council recommended adopting as the official October forecast.

The Forecast Office recommended the baseline scenario and presented an update showing a modest upward revision to general fund revenues: a $12.1 million net increase across 2025 and 2026 and roughly $7.6 million of that reflected as ongoing revenue in 2026. "In the forecast council meeting this morning, the forecast office has recommended the baseline scenario to be used as the official October forecast," said Jan Douris, interim director and chief economist at the Office of Economic and Revenue Forecast.

Why this matters: the October forecast is the principal revenue estimate the City Council uses to set budgets and evaluate councilmember proposals. The presenters said the baseline shows slightly better economic growth than the forecasted pessimistic path, but they warned the outlook carries more uncertainty than usual because of recent policy changes and volatile indicators.

Key figures and drivers

- General fund: net upward revision of $12.1 million for 2025—26, with about $7.6 million reflected as an ongoing increase in 2026. - Regional jobs: Washington State Employment Security Department revisions show a 0.7% decline in Seattle Metro Area employment (King and Snohomish…