Forecast council concurs with October 2025 baseline revenue forecast; staff warn of elevated uncertainty

Seattle's Economic and Revenue Forecast Council on Monday, Oct. 20, 2025, recorded its concurrence with the Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts'recommendation to use the October 2025 baseline revenue forecast as the official forecast that will guide the remainder of the city's 2026 budget process.

The action was taken at a public meeting in the council chambers at Seattle City Hall and by virtual participants; Chair Dan Strauss said the council would record its concurrence in the minutes after staff recommended the baseline and no members objected. That forecast will be the basis for City Council deliberations on the mayor's proposed 2026 budget and other near-term budget decisions.

Forecast staff led by Interim Director Jan Duras presented three scenarios'baseline, pessimistic and optimistic'and recommended the baseline despite a wider-than-normal range of risk. "We are recommending to use the baseline scenario of the presented forecast as the official revenue forecast," Duras said during the presentation. He and other staff warned that elevated economic uncertainty, weak regional employment data and recent policy changes mean the city should budget conservatively.

Staff highlighted several specific drivers behind the recommendation. Seattle-area employment estimates were revised downward by the Washington State Employment Security Department, showing a roughly 0.7% year-over-year decline (about 13,000 jobs) in the Seattle metropolitan…