Dayton school board adopts five-year financial forecast amid warnings about state tax proposals

The Dayton Public Schools Board of Education on Oct. 14 approved the district's financial forecast and assumptions, a required submission to the Ohio Department of Education, after a presentation by the district treasurer and extended board questioning.

Treasurer (presenter): The financial forecast shows the district relying heavily on state foundation funding and local property taxes while expenditures—primarily salaries and benefits—are rising. The forecast projects the district will need to draw on reserves in the coming years and warned that pending state proposals could reduce local revenues.

Board members said they were concerned about the long-term outlook and asked staff to prepare corrective options, including possible levy planning and operational adjustments.

The forecast is the document school districts must submit to the Ohio Department of Education; the board approved both the Excel and PDF versions the treasurer presented. The treasurer said the forecast was prepared to comply with current law and to show five years of planning for internal use, even though the state requires a three-year submission.

In the presentation, the treasurer emphasized two revenue buckets that drive Dayton's budget picture: state foundation funding and local property taxes. The treasurer told the board that the current state biennial budget (House Bill 96) provided no increase in foundation funding and that separate legislative proposals could reduce local property-tax revenue. She cited a potential county-level option that would allow a second homestead tax credit, saying it “could cost our district 2,900,000.0 if approved by our commissioners,” language used during the presentation.

Board members and district leaders reviewed the forecast's key numbers: the district projects state funding will remain the largest single revenue source, while property tax revenue accounts for most of the local share. Expenditures are increasingly driven by wages and benefits, and the treasurer noted the district is dipping into fund balance to cover rising costs. She reported that, under present assumptions, the district would be unable to maintain its 5% reserve policy after the forecast window.

Board members pressed staff on contingency planning. Superintendent Doctor Lawrence and the treasurer said they would assemble a plan for the board—covering options that seek to protect classroom instruction—before the board's next retreat. Several members urged a combined approach: examine operational savings, review unfilled positions, and plan community engagement in case a revenue measure is needed.

The board voted to approve the forecast as presented. After the vote treasurer and superintendent said they would provide follow-up materials, including scenario analysis and suggested next steps for protecting instructional programs.

The board's approval meets the Oct. 15 submission schedule the treasurer referenced; the district will also provide an update in February as required by state guidance.

Staff and board members said the forecast will inform near‑term decisions and that the district will continue to monitor state legislation that could affect local revenue.

Note: The treasurer's presentation referenced Ohio statutory and administrative requirements by number during the meeting (see authorities).