District outlines decade-long enrollment decline, community process for possible school closures

Superintendent Matt Best told the joint meeting that the district expects enrollment to decline by about 1,000 students over the next decade and that the decline is rolling up from lower grades into middle schools. “We are expected to decline by about a thousand students over the course of the next decade,” Best said.

Best said district planners are engaging in “worst-case planning,” because the most time-consuming and complex option is preparing for the possibility of closures. The district described a possible range of outcomes that could include closing between one and three schools — “two elementary schools and likely a junior high,” according to materials discussed at the meeting — depending on housing development and other factors.

The superintendent said the district conducted more than 60 community meetings last year and will start a community vetting phase in early November to review concepts that respond to the projected decline. “In November, it’s gonna start getting hard in Davis…we’ll be talking about specific school closures over this next window of time,” Best said. He said the board does not anticipate making a decision until 2027; staff described a multi-year implementation window and noted that any change would require time for facilities work and planning. Best urged a deliberate approach, saying colleagues in other districts recommend taking time to avoid rushed decisions.

Trustee DiNunzio and others told the meeting that while the process will be difficult for families and staff, the district’s prior fiscal discipline gives it some time to plan. The district noted that new housing projects under consideration in the city could materially affect student counts and that outcomes hinge in part on whether those developments proceed.