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Researchers say Central Valley ‘‘30% decline’’ in applied-minus-removed nitrogen is not statistically supported
Summary
Independent analysts told the State Water Resources Control Board expert panel that a reported 30% drop in Central Valley applied-minus-removed (A–R) nitrogen between 2019 and 2023 does not hold up to scrutiny because of incomplete reporting, year-to-year variability and outliers in the dataset.
A claim that A–R nitrogen loads across the Central Valley fell roughly 30% between 2019 and 2023 drew sharply different interpretations during a State Water Resources Control Board listening session.
Researchers and advocates told the second statewide agricultural expert panel that the 30% figure cited by regional staff is misleading. "An estimate of the 30% decline ... is misleading because the years for which the trend was calculated was cherry picked," hydrologist Ira Stewart Frey said, adding that extending the window back to 2018 reduces the magnitude of the change to about 10%.
Why it matters: regulators and the public are watching A–R numbers to decide whether numeric limits, voluntary targets or different enforcement paths are needed to protect groundwater and surface water from excess…
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