State, federal agencies outline mixed outlook as water year 2026 begins
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Summary
State and federal water officials briefed the State Water Resources Control Board on Oct. 7 about mixed signals entering the 2026 water year, saying Northern California had near‑average storage but that La Niña and Pacific marine heat anomalies raise the chance of intense but spatially uneven storms.
Sacramento — State and federal water officials briefed the State Water Resources Control Board on Oct. 7 about conditions coming into the 2026 water year, saying storage and reservoir levels are generally close to multi‑year averages in the north but that La Niña and Pacific marine heat anomalies increase the risk of abrupt swings between intense storms and prolonged dry periods.
The briefing, led by Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth and a DWR forecasting team, United States Bureau of Reclamation Acting Regional Director Adam Nichols and NOAA‑affiliated presenters, emphasized readiness for both flood and drought outcomes and new tools to manage rapid shifts in supply.
The agencies said Northern Sierra rainfall and reservoir storage finished 2025 slightly above average, while much of Southern California remained dry. Director Nemeth noted the state has “a renewed sense of urgency” for flood‑managed aquifer recharge, and described investments and planning to enable rapid recharge when storm runoff is available. She told the board DWR is coordinating emergency contracts for local agencies, procuring temporary pumps and improving conveyance sections to allow diverted flood flows to reach aquifers more quickly.
Why it matters: Officials said the distribution and timing of storms matter more than annual totals because a few intense storms can produce runoff that is difficult to capture and store without prior operational space and conveyance readiness. The agencies urged faster local‑state coordination to translate big storm events into stored groundwater before water is lost to bypass flows or spills.
Key details - Forecast signals: NOAA and DWR forecasters described a La Niña pattern combined with a basin‑scale marine heat anomaly. They said this combination tends to strengthen large Pacific high‑pressure ridging, which can deflect storm tracks northward and leave the Southwest and Southern California drier. Forecasters warned of the risk that the wet season could “shut off” after an early burst of storms, as occurred in past years. - Groundwater recharge priorities: Nemeth said DWR is developing aquifer recharge potential maps and has expanded a San Joaquin Valley diversion dashboard to the Sacramento Valley. The department is working with 14 local agencies on contracts for flood diversion and recharge, and has cleared acreage and repaired canal segments to speed recharge operations. - Real‑time operations and forecasting: DWR and Reclamation emphasized that improved short‑range forecasting and real‑time operational coordination can allow managers to protect fish and manage export operations while storing storm water. DWR said it is investing in “real‑time water management” capacity and an operations “boot camp” for flood forecasters. - Reclamation view: Acting Regional Director Adam Nichols said CVP reservoir conditions began the water year in good shape and praised state–federal coordination used during 2025. He also highlighted successes on river restoration and noted ongoing infrastructure investments and rehabilitation projects.
Caveats and next steps: Forecasters cautioned that early season storms are not a guarantee of a wet year and that monitoring will determine whether the season continues to deliver runoff into early spring. DWR and Reclamation said they will continue regular coordination with the board and local agencies, and the board signaled interest in a periodic cadence of status updates through the water year.
Board reaction and context: Chair Joaquin Esquivel thanked agency leaders for the convening and said the report helps link water rights administration, forecasting, and regional water management. Vice Chair Doreen D’Adamo and other board members asked about the state’s role in helping regions plan and permit recharge projects, noting the need to balance local accountability with regional coordination.
Ending: Officials urged local agencies and water managers to use the next weeks to refine operational plans and to prepare monitoring and permitting needs for rapid recharge if storm runoff becomes available.
