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Central staff warn of an expanding 2027 general fund deficit; underspend assumptions and jumpstart fund volatility highlighted
Summary
Central staff delivered a detailed general fund health check, showing a growing projected deficit in 2027 and flagging reliance on underspend assumptions and volatility in payroll‑expense (jumpstart) forecasts as key risks to sustainability.
Central staff presented a detailed general fund balancing analysis on Oct. 15 that showed the city's multi‑year fiscal outlook has worsened since the endorsed budget, with a projected deficit materially growing in 2027 and beyond.
Tom Mike Sell, lead analyst for Central Staff, told the committee the review was "the full physical exam for the general fund," tracing how adjustments since last fall — including technical updates, changes to transfers from the payroll expense tax (jumpstart) fund, and the executive's new revenue proposals — alter the city's projected balances.
Key findings and risks - Starting balance changes: Central Staff said the 2026 starting point improved modestly due to year‑end technical adjustments, but those one‑time gains are already allocated in the…
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