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Revenue outlook panel recommends $5.99 billion for FY2025, $6.4 billion for FY2026; JFAC accepts report
Summary
The Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee accepted the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee's revenue recommendation of $5.99 billion for fiscal 2025 and $6.4 billion for fiscal 2026, and members were urged to be cautious about appropriations above those figures.
The Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee on Thursday accepted the Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee's (EROC) revenue recommendation setting total general fund availability at $5.99 billion for fiscal 2025 and $6.4 billion for fiscal 2026.
EROC co-chair Senator Kevin Cook and co-chair Representative Jeff Ehlers presented the committee's review of Governor Little's general fund projections and expert testimony from economists and business leaders. The committee concluded its median revenue forecast was below the governor's June recommendations and urged a cautious approach to next year's appropriations.
"We recommend cautious in making appropriations above the committee's revenue recommendation," Senator Kevin Cook said when presenting the committee's findings. The panel reported that its median forecasts were lower than the governor's projections for the three-year window it reviewed; after further discussion the EROC recommended the $5,990,000,000 and $6,400,000,000 figures for fiscal 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Representative Jeff Ehlers thanked committee members and staff for their work and emphasized the reliance on expert testimony in forming the committee's median forecasts.
Co-chair Horman moved to accept the EROC report; Senator Woodward seconded the motion. The committee approved the report by unanimous consent, with no objections recorded.
Why it matters: Idaho's Constitution (Article VII, Section 11) requires the state to balance appropriations with revenue. The EROC recommendation provides the legislature and JFAC co-chairs a baseline the committee said should guide appropriation decisions entering the session. The committee noted economic uncertainty tied to Federal Reserve policy and the presidential election as risks to the forecast.
The committee did not adopt the governor's higher revenue baseline at the meeting and advised caution if appropriators consider spending above the EROC figures.
