Bellbrook-Sugarcreek board adopts five-year financial forecast, projects steep drop after 2028 levy expires

The Bellbrook Sugar Creek Board of Education accepted the district's five-year financial forecast at its Oct. 9 meeting, after a presentation describing revenue and expenditure assumptions and the effect of an expiring emergency levy.

The forecast, prepared in accordance with Ohio Revised Code section 5705.391, projects that district revenues will remain roughly stable through fiscal 2028 but will decline sharply in fiscal 2029 and 2030 because the district's emergency levy expires Dec. 31, 2028. The presentation showed cash balances falling below the board's 20% revenue goal and below the Government Finance Officers Association's recommended 25% reserve by 2030 if no new levy is approved.

Why it matters: property taxes provide the largest share of local revenue for the district, and the forecast assumes the emergency levy's proceeds (about $3.2 million annually) will disappear after the levy expires. The presentation said the district's other major revenue source, the state foundation, is essentially flat and will not close the gap created by rising personnel and benefit costs.

Key assumptions and details: the forecast submission reflects the board-approved fiscal 2026 budget as the first year and includes three years of projections thereafter. Assumptions called out during the presentation included: an assumed 10% increase in property values at the next reappraisal (with a much smaller net revenue gain because of Ohio's tax structure), 4% annual salary/step increases after 2027, and a 9% annual increase in health insurance costs beginning January 2026. The presenter noted a one-time receipt of roughly $1,000,000 in delinquent property taxes that boosted recent year receipts and cautioned that legislative changes affecting property taxes could materially alter the outlook.

Expenditures: personnel costs, including salaries and benefits, were identified as the largest and fastest-growing expense. The forecast shows personnel and fringe costs increasing through 2030 and identified rising electric and purchased-service costs as drivers of near-term growth in the purchase-services category.

Board questions and discussion focused on: the timing of reappraisals and levy expirations, possible state legislative changes affecting property-tax carryover and levy formulas, and the operational challenge of balancing reserves against long-term sustainability. Board members and the presenter repeatedly emphasized the forecast is a planning tool and that the district will continue to monitor changes in state law and market conditions.

Vote: The motion to accept the five-year forecast was moved by Missus Dorn and seconded by Missus Anderson. The roll call vote was Doctor Pryor 'yes; Missus Anderson 'yes; Missus Dawn 'yes; Mister Kinsey 'yes; Mister Price 'yes. The motion passed, 5-0.

Next steps: Once accepted by the board, the forecast will be submitted to the Ohio Department of Education for review, as required by state law. Trustees and staff said they will continue monitoring legislative activity that could change property-tax treatment and other assumptions underlying the forecast.